2024 Presidential Election Forecast

How Many Electoral Votes to Win Presidency

It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election

Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast.

There is a 12-in-100 chance that Biden wins the national popular vote by 10 percentage points

538's forecast is based on a combination of polls.

Who's ahead in the national polls? We keep a running average of national head-to-head polls, which gives a sense of how the presidential race is shaping up.

Who's Ahead in National Presidential Polls? Do Voters Want Republicans Or Democrats In Congress? Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race using data from national and battleground state polls